IMF Finds Methodological Gaps in Reporting of Tourism Earnings in St Lucia
CASTRIES, St Lucia, April 26, 2025 – Eye-opening findings from a recent International Monetary Fund IMF review revealed overstated tourism earnings in St Lucia, raising urgent concerns over the accuracy of data that shapes the nation’s economic policy and investment decisions. The IMF’s Caribbean Regional Technical Assistance Centre (CARTAC) conducted its mission from October 28 to November 1, 2024, examining the external sector statistics that underpin the country’s tourism revenue. The report, released on Good Friday, points to significant methodological flaws in surveys carried out by the St Lucia Tourist Board (SLTB), with far-reaching implications for the country’s reported travel export figures.
Survey Flaws Cast Doubt on Overstated Tourism Earnings in St Lucia
According to the IMF review, the SLTB’s 2023 Visitor Expenditure Survey (VES) recorded a critically low response rate—just 1.3 percent of stay-over visitors participated, down from an already weak 18 percent for prior email surveys. Conducted via email and QR codes, the survey failed to capture a representative sample of tourists, disproportionately excluding non-all-inclusive hotel guests and introducing sample bias. This under-representation means the survey does not accurately reflect the diversity of accommodations and spending behaviors among St Lucia’s visitors.
The IMF’s review found that cross-checking St Lucia’s 2023 travel export figures with US travel data revealed a substantial overestimation risk: overall travel export figures could be inflated by up to 14 percent, while reported US visitor spending may be nearly 25 percent higher than reality. These issues contribute directly to overstated tourism earnings in St Lucia, distorting the national economic outlook and risking misinformed policy and investment decisions.
Expenditure trends in 2023 further complicate the picture. The IMF reported that while average daily spending by US and European tourists rose sharply—by 17 to 18 percent—Caribbean visitor spending fell, and the average length of stay dropped across most markets, introducing volatility and uncertainty into official statistics.
IMF Calls for Reforms and Broader Data Collection
To address these shortcomings, the IMF mission urged the revival of “more comprehensive” face-to-face visitor surveys, last used in St Lucia before the COVID-19 pandemic, as soon as budget allows. The goal is to secure a more accurate and representative sample that better reflects the characteristics of the island’s visitor population. The target date for these improvements is June 2025.
The IMF also called for expansion of expenditure tracking to include the yacht industry—a significant but underreported source of tourism revenue—and its business service providers, also with a target implementation date of June 2025.
Institutional and Legislative Changes Underway
Recognizing these challenges, St Lucia enacted new tourism legislation in 2024, mandating a centralised data system to improve monitoring and accuracy. However, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) has acknowledged delays in implementing these reforms, citing persistent resource constraints. The IMF has stressed the need for tighter coordination between the CSO, SLTB, Customs and Excise Department, and other agencies to address data gaps and ensure reliable statistics.
Tourism remains a critical pillar of St Lucia’s economy, so overstated tourism earnings in St Lucia can have far-reaching consequences, not just for travel export earnings, but for policy, private sector confidence, and economic planning.
Broader Implications and Data Transparency
In addition to travel exports—the revenue St Lucia earns from international visitors—the IMF mission also examined data collection issues related to trade in goods and the Citizenship by Investment Program (CIP), underscoring the urgency of methodological reforms to support sound economic planning.
The IMF further encouraged the CSO to enhance its website to provide timely dissemination of balance of payments statistics and other key economic indicators—information currently available only through the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank. “Effective dissemination channels are a crucial aspect of data quality,” the IMF stated, highlighting the importance of transparent, accessible information for policy makers and the public.
For further analysis on official statistics and data reliability, read our in-depth coverage of St Lucia economic growth claims.
For further updates on overstated tourism earnings in St Lucia, sector reforms, and economic developments, follow Unitedpac St Lucia News.
