New data show cracks in St Lucia tourism performance
CASTRIES, St Lucia — St Lucia tourism performance is showing clear signs of strain, according to newly released Eastern Caribbean Central Bank figures cited in a policy analysis shared by United Workers Party Castries South candidate Tommy Descartes, raising concerns about the direction of the island’s main economic sector at a time when much of the region is experiencing a broader Caribbean tourism recovery.
Data published by the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank in December 2025 show that St Lucia visitor arrivals declined by 3.9% between January and September 2025, equivalent to 14,463 fewer visitors compared with the same period in 2024. The International Monetary Fund has described the downturn as a clear underperformance relative to regional peers, attributing part of the decline to hotel closures and reduced airlift during 2025, while indicating that the weakness appears broader and more structural in nature.
According to the figures outlined in the analysis, every major tourism segment contracted during the period under review. Stay-over arrivals fell by 3.2%, representing 10,574 fewer visitors. Cruise passenger arrivals declined by 14.4%, or 69,084 fewer passengers. Yacht arrivals dropped by 6.8%, while excursionist arrivals declined by 17.8%, amounting to 1,741 fewer visitors. The data suggest the slowdown was not confined to a single market but affected the tourism sector across the board.
A breakdown of stay-over arrivals reveals where the strain is most pronounced. Arrivals from the United Kingdom fell by 18.2%, equivalent to 10,482 fewer visitors. Canada recorded a 14.3% decline, or approximately 3,800 fewer arrivals, while arrivals from other markets, largely continental Europe, declined by 6.8%. These losses were only partially offset by growth from the United States, where arrivals increased by 2.3%, adding 4,345 visitors, and a marginal rise from the Caribbean market of 0.9%, from 40,938 to 41,312.
The resulting shift has increased St Lucia’s dependence on the United States as its dominant source market. While U.S. growth helped cushion declines elsewhere, the analysis cautions that reliance on a single market heightens exposure to external economic conditions and geopolitical risks beyond the island’s control.
St Lucia cruise tourism recorded an even steeper downturn. Passenger arrivals fell by 14.4%, in line with a 27.8% reduction in cruise calls, which declined from 292 in 2024 to 212 in 2025. Longer-term comparisons point to additional concerns. By 2024, cruise calls were reported to be 9% above their 2019 level, yet cruise passenger numbers remained 63,243 below pre-pandemic figures, suggesting smaller vessels, altered itineraries, or weaker onshore demand.
Visitor spending mirrored the decline in arrivals. Total visitor expenditure between January and September 2025 fell by 7.2%, or approximately $192 million. The analysis, based on Eastern Caribbean Central Bank data, notes that headline tourism receipts can overstate tourism’s domestic contribution, as balance-of-payments statistics capture gross spending rather than what is retained locally. The IMF has previously questioned the methodological accuracy of relying on such indicators alone.
In 2024, total tourism expenditure was estimated at $3.6 billion. However, the combined contribution of accommodation and food services and transport, including land, sea, and air, to gross domestic product was estimated at roughly $1.7 billion, or about 47% of headline tourism receipts. The remainder is attributed to economic leakage through imports, profit repatriation by foreign-owned hotels and airlines, international booking platforms, and prepaid travel arrangements made overseas.
One data point diverges from the broader trend, as tourism employment data show a sharp increase in jobs during 2025. The sector employed 17,025 persons in the third quarter, up from 13,871 during the same period in 2024. The increase of 3,154 workers occurred even as visitor arrivals declined by nearly 4%, raising questions about data consistency, labour productivity, or delayed hiring decisions taken during the recovery phase.
By 2024, total visitor arrivals reached 491,573, equivalent to 98.5% of the 2019 total of 499,261. Stay-over arrivals exceeded pre-pandemic levels, rising from 380,791 in 2019 to 435,573 in 2024, driven almost entirely by the United States market, which surpassed its 2019 level by 2022. Other markets remain below their pre-pandemic peaks, with Canada at 87%, the United Kingdom at 98%, the Caribbean at 68%, and other markets at 73%, pointing to an uneven and narrow recovery.
Looking ahead, the analysis describes the outlook as fragile. Heightened geopolitical tensions involving the United States, combined with weak growth in the United Kingdom and Europe, could further suppress arrivals, while cruise tourism remains vulnerable to security concerns across the wider Caribbean.
The data point to a broader strategic challenge for the island. As neighbouring destinations such as Grenada, Dominica, St Vincent and the Grenadines, and St Kitts and Nevis expand airlift, add hotel capacity, and pursue more aggressive cruise strategies, St Lucia risks ceding market share without a clearly articulated tourism strategy for the next five years and beyond.
