NHC says tropical disturbance AL91 has a 90% chance of forming during peak hurricane season
MIAMI — The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring tropical disturbance AL91, a system in the eastern tropical Atlantic that forecasters say could develop into a tropical depression within days. The disturbance, moving westward at 5 to 10 mph, is expected to approach the Lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.
High odds of development
As of the 8 a.m. advisory Friday, forecasters gave AL91 a 60 percent chance of formation within 48 hours and a 90 percent chance over the next seven days. The disturbance is currently producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but conditions in the central Atlantic are favorable for further development.
“If current trends hold, a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week,” NHC forecaster David Hagen said in the outlook.
Potential threat to the Lesser Antilles
While it is too early to predict the system’s strength or exact path, the disturbance could near the Lesser Antilles by next week. Meteorologists urged residents across the island chain to stay alert and monitor official updates as the system progresses.
This is the second time in recent weeks that the National Hurricane Center has highlighted a developing system with possible impacts on the region. A previous NHC outlook tracked a tropical disturbance near the Windward Islands, underscoring the heightened vigilance during the most active part of the season.
Seasonal vigilance remains critical
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which historically occurs in September, often brings the most active storm activity. Forecasters warn that warm waters and favorable upper-level winds may support AL91’s continued organization.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has already produced several named storms, highlighting the importance of early preparation. Experts stress that even weak or developing systems can bring heavy rain, gusty winds, and hazardous seas to the Caribbean region.
The National Hurricane Center will release its next update on AL91 later Friday.
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