PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad and Tobago — The following open letter on the Shell gas boom in Trinidad and Tobago by Curtis Obrady was submitted for publication and is reproduced in full below. It comes amid renewed attention on Shell’s Dragon gas project in Trinidad and Tobago.
Full text of the open letter
Subject: The Shell Gas Boom and the Economic Lift of Trinidad and Tobago
Dear Editor,
Facts define credibility. Data defines direction. The expansion now unfolding in the natural gas sector, led by Shell through the Dragon and Manatee developments, is not based on optimism. It is anchored in production schedules, capital commitments, and quantifiable output that will lift Trinidad and Tobago’s economy over the next three to five years and beyond.
The country has faced a clear constraint in recent times, reduced gas availability averaging roughly 2.5 to 2.7 billion cubic feet per day. That constraint has limited LNG throughput, reduced petrochemical output, and tightened foreign exchange earnings. The projects now advancing directly address that bottleneck.
Start with the Manatee Field. This is a sanctioned and advancing project. Development drilling begins in 2026. First gas is projected between late 2027 and early 2028. At peak, Manatee is expected to produce approximately 604 million standard cubic feet per day.
That single addition represents a supply increase in the range of 20 percent relative to current domestic availability. In economic terms, each 100 million cubic feet per day supports between 300 million and 500 million US dollars annually in downstream value when processed through LNG and petrochemical systems. At peak capacity, Manatee alone has the potential to generate over 2 billion US dollars per year in economic activity.
Then examine the Dragon Field.
With estimated reserves of approximately 4.2 trillion cubic feet, Dragon is positioned as a high impact cross border asset. The March 2026 framework agreement between Shell and Venezuela has introduced regulatory clarity that allows project advancement with reduced uncertainty. First gas is now targeted for the second half of 2027.
Initial production is expected to range between 200 and 350 million cubic feet per day, with scope for expansion. When combined with Manatee, total incremental supply could reach between 800 million and 1 billion cubic feet per day by 2028.
This scale changes the national energy equation.
It shifts the country from constrained supply to expanded capacity. Atlantic LNG, which has operated below optimal levels due to feedstock shortages, stands to benefit directly. A restoration of supply can increase LNG export volumes by several million tonnes annually.
At prevailing LNG prices between 8 and 12 US dollars per million BTU, an additional 2 million tonnes per year in exports can generate between 1.5 and 2.5 billion US dollars in annual revenue. These figures are grounded in current market pricing and standard conversion metrics.
The petrochemical sector will also see direct gains. Methanol and ammonia plants depend on consistent gas feed. With restored supply, utilization rates can return to the 85 to 90 percent range. Each increase in utilization translates into export earnings and foreign exchange inflows.
This is how the gas boom lifts the economy. It increases output. It expands exports. It strengthens the balance of payments. It supports fiscal stability.
Government revenue will reflect this shift. Increased production leads to higher royalties, taxes, and profit sharing. Conservative projections indicate that the combined output from Dragon and Manatee can generate between 1 and 1.5 billion US dollars annually in additional government revenue once peak production is reached.
This strengthens the national budget and expands the government’s capacity to fund infrastructure, security, and social services.
There is also a multiplier effect. Energy sector expansion drives demand for local contractors, marine services, fabrication, engineering, and logistics. Offshore development requires supply chains that create employment across multiple industries.
Construction activity tied to drilling campaigns, subsea installations, and processing upgrades will generate jobs. Long term operations will sustain them.
Beyond domestic impact, Shell’s global LNG strategy reinforces Trinidad and Tobago’s relevance. The company is expanding capacity in Canada, strengthening infrastructure in the US Gulf of Mexico, and increasing upstream exploration to replace aging reserves.
This signals one clear reality. Global LNG demand remains strong and supply chains are being reinforced.
Trinidad and Tobago is positioned within that system as a processing and export hub.
Reliability is the determining factor in this market. Countries that deliver consistent volumes secure long term contracts and investment inflows. Those that do not are bypassed.
The developments now underway place Trinidad and Tobago firmly in the category of reliable supplier.
This outcome is the result of coordinated and decisive leadership.
Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar has provided the political authority and diplomatic direction required to unlock complex cross-border energy arrangements. Engagement at this level requires navigating sanctions frameworks, securing international approvals, and maintaining investor confidence.
That work has produced results.
The Honourable Dr. Roodal Moonilal, MP, Minister of Energy and Energy Affairs, has driven execution. His engagement with Shell and other stakeholders, his focus on accelerating timelines, and his emphasis on maximizing production have contributed directly to the progress now visible.
This is what leadership produces. Agreements that move forward. Projects that advance. Output that increases.
The statement that Trinidad and Tobago is open for business is supported by data.
Projected additional supply approaching 1 billion cubic feet per day.
Potential economic impact exceeding 3 to 4 billion US dollars annually.
Expansion of LNG exports by millions of tonnes.
Higher petrochemical production and utilization.
Stronger and more stable government revenue streams.
These are measurable outcomes tied directly to projects already in motion.
The Shell gas expansion is not a short-term development. It is a structural shift that repositions the country within the global energy market. It restores industrial capacity. It strengthens fiscal resilience. It creates a platform for sustained economic growth.
This is how a nation lifts itself. Through production, through disciplined policy, and through leadership that delivers results.
